Month: May 2005
I Call Sexson Babe’s Lad
by Score Bard
2005-05-13 14:15

He worships Seattle-based dessert food:
“Thornton secretive cake.”
Adrian Beltre cuts off other bread bins,
And darn never eats chicken.
Brilliantly Boone burps egg flour chunks,
Managing to eat it in bold haiku-
Winn hath wrought thy butter, Olivo eats bread:
“Thornton secretive cake.”

We’ll Take The House
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-11 15:07

Honey, the chances of giving up a two-run homer in the bottom of the ninth with a one-run lead two days in a row are astronomical. See? It’s been pre-disastered. We’re going to be saf

Lightning never strikes twi

Tony Pena Resigns
by Score Bard
2005-05-11 7:30

It looks like the leader of Royalty
Unloaded all pledges of loyalty
Cuz his passionate blood,
When his team was a dud,
Reached near-fatal levels of boilty.

The Evil Midnight Blogger What Blogs At Midnight
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-11 0:01

And so he says to me, you want to blog? and I says, Yeah baby! I want to be a blogger! I says play ball, bunt monkeys! I’m making hot dogs without mustard! Ah ha ha ha haaaa!

He says to me, he says to me, ‘Baby I’m tired of watchin’ this lousy team!’ I says, I says, why don’t you blow it to bits?

And he says to me, he says to me, you got style, baby! But if you’re gonna to be a real blogger you gotta get a gimmick…and so I go I says Yeah Baby! A gimmick, that’s it! Team Explosives! Aaaah-hahahahaaaa!

So he says to me, you gotta do something smart, baby, something big! He says you want to be a superblogger, right, and I go yeah baby, yeah yeah! What do I gotta do? He says, you got bombs, blow up the team; it’s packed with powder. You’ll go down in superblogger history, and I go yeah baby, cuz I’m the Evil Midnight Blogger What Blogs at Midnight! Ah ha ha ha ha ha!

Eat my smoke, Zito baby! I’m trading you! Kaboom!

Dotel, baby, this could happen to you, too. This could happen to anybody! He says he hung that slider, and I go, I says, it’s the only hung you got. Ha!

And then next thing you know: milkshake! Whoosh!

And so I says to Byrnes, uh, Byrnes baby Byrnes, I says, you got legs baby, you’re everywhere, you’re all over the place, but you’re not here anymore, baby! You’re outta here!!!

Oh, hi!

Durazo, I says, I don’t like the price of your jib, and I go, you’re going, baby, your jib’s going straight Outta Town!

Excuse me…excuse me…and then I says tell me I’m wrong, and he says I can’t baby ’cause you’re not!

And Hatteberg, Hatteberg, sixty seconds to nowhere, baby! You’re becoming the next victim of the Evil Midnight Blogger What Blogs…hey pay attention!

Yeah Baby! Now you’ve only got twenty seconds until you all Eat My Stew!!!

You’ll never prove a thing; I’m just a part-time programmer. Down with patience! Blogging is good, baby!

Lots of Q’s, No A’s
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-10 11:37

FRIAR FRANCIS: Did I not tell you she was innocent?

LEONATO: So are the prince and Claudio, who accused her
Upon the error that you heard debated:
But Margaret was in some fault for this,
Although against her will, as it appears
In the true course of all the question.

ANTONIO: Well, I am glad that all things sort so well.

   —Much Ado About Nothing, Act V, Scene IV

Went to the doctor yesterday for my heartburn, and he said I had a “classic case of acid reflux.” That’s not the greatest news in the world, in that I’ll probably have to deal with this on and off for the rest of my life now, but I am happy to hear that it’s classic. There’s a clear program for dealing with it. I’ve had some other things where the doctors aren’t quite sure what’s going on, or how to treat it. That’s worse.

But given that I’m trying to calm down my stomach, I’ve decided to avoid any unnecessary stress. So when Scott Hatteberg committed two errors on one play with the bases loaded yesterday, I turned off the TV. I knew right then and there the A’s were going to get their butts kicked, and I didn’t need the aggravation.

I probably shouldn’t even watch any games at all this week, but that’s probably not going to happen. I’m rather addicted to this sport, and it’s hard to quit cold turkey.

Speaking of addictions, I hope that this article about amphetamines by Jeff Passan in the Kansas City Star is much ado about nothing, but I have questions.

Would any of the other players in that congressional hearing have gone into a Mark McGwire-like silent trance if they had been asked about greenies instead of just steroids?

How widespread is widespread? What percentage of Major League baseball players are addicted to amphetamines? What would happen to them if they were suddenly forced to stop taking them? Would they have withdrawal symptoms? Would their performances drop?

If clubhouses in the 90s had amphetamine-spiked coffee out in the open, the team doctors and management had to know about it, and tolerate it. Do they still tolerate amphetamines today? If not, when did they stop, and what prompted the change?

What if they only stopped this year, because of the steroid scandal? Would scoring go down? Or have pitchers popped greenies as much as hitters?

What if some teams stopped their tacit tolerance of amphetamines, and others didn’t? Would the performance of those teams suffer unfairly in comparison to others?

When Brian Anderson says about public perception, “we’re going to get slaughtered if the public buys into it,” should we buy into it?

When Bud Selig says, “It is time to put the whispers about amphetamine use to bed once and for all,” is he right? Is it time to cease our gossipy whispers, grab our torches and pitchforks, and come after these players with the shouts of an angry mob, hungry for the slaughter?

Or do we just let it slide, because thinking about it makes us sick to our stomachs?

Ken’s Rants
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-09 8:39

I’m in a bad mood. Maybe it’s this heartburn that’s been bothering me for the last few days, or maybe it’s because yesterday was Mother’s Day, and my wife hates it when I yell at the TV, so to give her as nice a day as possible, I bottled all my negative emotions during yesterday’s game, but now they’re ready to burst. In any case, I need to vent, and that’s partly the reason why I started this blog. The following is probably not particularly rational:

  • Memo to Fox Sports Net: I hate smoking as much as anyone, but the next time you show that anti-smoking ad with the chick who keeps saying “I’m not a smoker”, I’m going to poke a fork through my eyeball sockets and scoop my brains out onto the floor. Must you show that thing every dang inning?

    Really, is it ethical to run ads that prevent lung cancer in some people, if it causes suicide in others?
     

  • Peter Gammons writes a rant about failing to plate runners from third with less than two outs that I wish I had written myself, since I’ve been screaming similar things at my TV for over a year now.

    The table Gammons uses tells it all. Only eight MLB teams have scored such runners less than 50% of the time. Only two have scored less than 40% of the time. The A’s have scored less than 30% of the time: a .286 average as of last week (and almost certainly lower now after two straight shutouts).

    Gammons quotes Buck Showalter as saying “Too many hitters have no idea about a two-strike approach,” which would definitely be part of my rant. But to those players on the A’s who do have a two-strike approach, I’ll add this: you don’t have to wait until there’s two friggin’ strikes on you to use your two-strike approach. If there’s a runner on third with less than two outs, or a runner on second and no outs, use your two-strike approach from the first pitch. Get a pitch to put in play, and put it in play. Don’t swing for the fences, and don’t hope for a pitch later in the AB that you can hit a home run with. You guys ain’t hittin’ home runs anyway.

    I’ve had a sneaking suspicion that this has been a fundamental flaw in the type of players Billy Beane likes to acquire. High-walk players just don’t put the ball in play enough to drive in runs. Over on Baseball Prospectus, James Click has a study that puts some numbers behind this suspicion. It’s subscription only, but I’ll include a key quote:

    This doesn’t mean that walks are a bad thing; it just means that teams with a disproportionate percentage of their baserunners coming on walks will have a higher percentage of their baserunners left on base than teams whose baserunners come from hits.

    In Beane’s defense, I think he’s come to realize this. His acquisitions of Mark Kotsay and Jason Kendall the last two offseasons shows that he does appreciate players who put the ball in play. But if the rest of the current A’s roster can’t do the job, Billy Beane should go and find some players who can. Because that .286 percentage is simply unacceptable. When something doesn’t work, you try something else.
     

  • Speaking of Jason Kendall, I am not much impressed with his defense. Half his throws to second base don’t even get there on the fly. Yesterday, he let two wild pitches go through his legs when he failed to turn his glove over and block the ball. And his hitting hasn’t been all that great, either. If Macha is serious about his “players write the lineup” mantra, he’s going to give Adam Melhuse some more chances to play.
     
  • I’ve seen enough of Eric Byrnes. His swing is so screwed up now that his biggest strength offensively is the HBP. Give me Charles Thomas, Matt Watson, Andre Ethier…anybody.
     
  • And finally, in the spirit of replacing things that don’t work with things that do, I’ll replace my jinx reverser with Cliff Corcoran’s.

    The A’s will get swept in Boston. The A’s won’t hit Wakefield or Arroyo at all while the Red Sox pound Haren and Saarloos. On Wednesday, Barry Zito will have more bad luck, as the A’s may get some baserunners against Matt Clement, but as usual, they won’t get a single clutch hit or productive out to drive in a run. Or as I said to Cliff Corcoran the other day when he predicted that Kevin Brown would give up 20 baserunners in a single inning against the A’s, “That may be true, but even if the A’s get 20 baserunners against Brown in one inning, they would still fail to score any runs.”

Nice Trick, Cliff
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-07 12:25

Cliff pulled the old reverse jinx trick by predicting an A’s sweep, thereby guaranteeing that it wouldn’t happen.

It totally negated my recipe trick, and the A’s went back to their pre-recipe-blog non-scoring ways, and lost 5-0.

Moreover, I think he’s up to some other evil trick at this very moment, so to counteract him, I’m throwing out a triple dose of recipes:

First, here’s where to get some jinx-removing root oil.

Then, we’ll use the classic Egg Jinx Removing Spell.

And to invoke the power of Motherhood, and to prevent my powers from crumbling away, I’ll throw in Mom’s No-Crumble Nutbread.

That, plus a solid dose of Rich Harden ought to do the trick.

Upside-down
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-06 21:57

The A’s beat the Yankees 6-3 in ten innings, but I’m not feeling pumped up about it like I usually do after beating them. This felt like a mid-August game between two teams in fourth place, not a tense battle between playoff-caliber clubs.

Barry Zito pitched well (although Macha left him in too long again), and the A’s got a couple of home runs (home runs? what’s that?) from Eric Byrnes and Bobby Kielty. But that’s about it for the highlights. The rest of the game was ugly.

Used to be that you had to play your best mistake-free game to beat the Yankees. But tonight, the A’s played sloppily, left a gazillion runners in scoring position again, and yet still won because the Yankees played even more sloppily than the A’s.

The key play was in the bottom of the eighth inning where Octavio Dotel threw a terrible pitch behind Alex Rodriguez, which glanced off the glove of Jason Kendall, who then threw out Jorge Posada trying to advance to third base with two outs in a tie game. Just a horrible pitch, but an even more horrible baserunning mistake.

Then the Yankees played defense like a bunch of Little Leaguers in the top of the 10th, and handed the A’s three runs. The A’s tried their best to slop the game back to the Yankees in the bottom of the 10th, walking the leadoff man and dropping a pop fly, but the Yankees failed to capitalize, and the A’s held on to win.

The Yankees failed to capitalize? I can’t remember ever saying that before. Something weird is going on here. First the Red Sox break their curse, and now the Yankees can’t get the lucky break they almost always seem to get. The Earth’s magnetic North Pole and South Pole must be flipping upside down or something.

Therefore, I hereby declare that the recipe of the day is Broccoli and Cornmeal Upside-down Cake. What could be more appropriate than that?

Got Beer? Got Tacos?
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-06 11:38

Yesterday, as I started my car, my radio was tuned to 610 AM, the A’s flagship station. 610AM has just switched from being an oldies station to religious (Christian) programming.

I have nothing against religious programming per se; some of my favorite films
and music albums explore the relationship between God and man. My problem is that most of it just descends into trite, annoying clichés.

I was expecting the worst, either some bland Christian pop music like “You Light Up My Life”, or some 700-Clubish “Democrats will burn in Hell” chatter. But I decided to keep an open mind and give the station a chance. To my surprise, I didn’t turn the dial; the announcer was reading a story about the death of Aaron Burr.

That certainly got my curiosity up. Awooon Buuuhh! Awooon Buuuhh! (Can anyone hear the name Aaron Burr anymore without thinking of that commercial?) I wondered, why would a religious station discuss Aaron Burr?

It turns out the Aaron Burr in question was Aaron Burr, Sr., not Awooon Buuuhh, Jr. who was only a year old when his father died.

The story being read was not about Burr or Buuuhh; it was a biography of Burr’s father-in-law (Buuuhh’s grandfather), Jonathan Edwards. Edwards succeeded Burr, Sr. as President of Princeton University in 1758. (His term was brief; Edwards died just months later in a failed smallpox immunization attempt.)

Jonathan Edwards was a Calvinist Puritan preacher in a time when Puritanism was fading in popularity. Like any good Puritan preacher, he could deliver an effective fire-and-brimstone story, such as Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God:

…you are thus in the Hands of an Angry God; ’tis nothing but his mere Pleasure that keeps you from being this Moment swallowed up in everlasting Destruction.

In Edwards’ era, Isaac Newton’s physics and John Locke’s philosophy were profoundly changing how people looked at the world God had created. Edwards, in his writings and sermons, attempted to merge these new ideas with his old Calvinist Puritan beliefs.

This, I suspect, is why the religious station was discussing the life of Jonathan Edwards. Edwards had many followers in his day, but over time, his philosophical theology faded along with Puritanism itself. But America is experiencing a bit of a neo-Puritan (i.e. Fundamentalist) revival these days, and his arguments now have a new audience who find them useful.

I knew nothing about any of this until I went home and looked up Edwards on the web. What fascinates me about this is that people in the 18th century were deep into the sort of beer-or-tacos, faith-or-rationalism debate that characterizes baseball today.

On the one hand, you have the old school: the 18th-century Puritans (21st-century scouts), who were deeply entrenched in a pre-scientific culture, had complete faith in their way of doing things, and utterly rejected the new knowledge. At the other end of the spectrum, you had those (some atheists and statheads) who rejected the old ideas as pure illogical nonsense, and would only tolerate rational arguments.

In between, you have a full spectrum of beliefs. There are some (Jonathan Edwards, Joe Morgan) who will acknowledge the new ideas as having some merit, yet still cling with a fierce determination to the old way of life. Others (Deists, Billy Beane) will acknowledge the mysteries to a small degree, but insist on behaving as if the universe is mostly rational. Most people fell somewhere in-between.

Interesting, too, that the most venomous debates were not between the purists on either end, but between the near-purists. We all know how much poison there is between the Joe Morgan camp and the Billy Beane camp. Similarly, Edwards had strong contempt for deists, who believe in God but not in miracles:

Edwards reveals the status of deists in his own mind when, in an unpublished sermon preached in 1731, he refers to “robbers, pirates and deists” with apologies to the robbers and pirates.

So don’t expect the scouts vs. stats debate to end any time soon. If the history of faith vs. reason has shown us anything, the argument could last for centuries.

Bizarro Beane
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-04 16:27

When me say me want A’s to shake up things, me not mean replace old A’s with Bizarro A’s.

Old A’s park dry in May. Bizarro A’s park rainy. Old A’s score no runs, give up just a few. Bizarro A’s score lots of runs, give up even more.

Me not like. Me wanted Bizarro Beane to turn worthless diamond into valuable coal. Not turn worthless solid diamond into worthless diamond dust. It still worthless.

Me must learn to be careful what me ask for.

Kitty Litter
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-03 22:18

This recipe for kitty litter cake is the most disgusting thing I’ve seen in a long time. Aside from the A’s offense, of course.

The A’s got shut out through 5 2/3 innings by Chris Young tonight. That’s inexcusable. Not that Young can’t have a good day every now and then, but tonight wasn’t it. He wasn’t painting the corners. He was constantly falling behind in the count. He was throwing 3-1, 87mph hit-me pitches down the middle of the plate, and the A’s were fouling them off or popping them up. There are plenty of AA and AAA teams that wouldn’t have been shut out by Chris Young tonight.

Shutting down the A’s offense right now is incredibly simple: just throw the ball over the plate. Don’t walk anybody, and chances are, the A’s won’t hurt you.

The A’s were hitting like this in 2002, and in the middle of May, Billy Beane shook things up: he traded Jeremy Giambi, he demoted Carlos Pena and then traded him, too. They went on to win the division.

I’m sure Billy Beane is working the phones right now, seeing what his options are, so that perhaps in a week or three, he can do some shaking. Or perhaps, the A’s will wake up and start hitting by then, so a shakeup won’t be needed.

But a wakeup or a shakeup better come soon. I don’t want to spend the next five months watching hitting like this. Frankly, I’d rather eat kitty litter.

Elsewhere
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-03 12:59

One of my favorite things on the web are the “Elsewhere” entries over on 2 Blowhards. I’d really like to flatter them, so here’s some imitation:

  • Zachary Manprin didn’t like Eric Byrnes’ diving catch on Saturday.
     
  • Over at Athletics Nation, they’re discussing an Eric Byrnes-for-Reggie Sanders rumor. I don’t know why St. Louis would do that. When you’re kicking butt like the Cardinals are, you don’t mess with your team.
     
  • The latest BP Postseason Odds Report shows the A’s with a 29.4% chance of making the playoffs, slightly higher than the Angels’ 28.75% chance. But here’s the sad thing: the A’s have an average of 78 wins in their simulations, the Angels 77. If the West was won by a sub-.500 team, it would be truly pathetic.
     
  • Rob McMillin expands on my list of satellite pictures of current ballparks, with a satellite tour of old ballparks.
     
  • Meanwhile, Marine Layer has both satellite and ground-level tours of possible future ballpark sites for the A’s.
     

And finally, my four-year-old daughter offers her own satellite image of a future A’s ballpark, apparently named ‘Bank of America Field’:

Some comments from the architect:

  • “I messed up on the batters boxes.”
  • “Hatteberg is a really long word.”
  • “Crosby is spelled ‘Crows Bye’. That’s really funny.”
  • Her favorite recipe.

The Boss of My Brain
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-01 21:46

Philip Michaels offers this blog some recipe recommendations. I’m grateful, Philip. Although I’m not sure I can recommend the fish tacos. Isn’t that a Padres thing?

I didn’t see the A’s game today. Went with the family to a Tom Chapin concert. If you’re looking for good children’s music that won’t drive you insane with cliches, Tom Chapin’s the guy. You may disagree, but it’s a free country, and I am me, and you’re not the boss of my brain.

It was a fun, entertaining day. After the show, we got to meet Chapin and his fellow performer Michael Mark (whose claim to fame is writing the theme song for Entertainment Tonight), and they couldn’t have been nicer to the kids. And best of all, unlike the show at the Coliseum, we didn’t have to witness somebody tear up their collarbone.

I guess we’ll find out tomorrow how bad Nick Swisher is hurt. Swisher certainly hasn’t been hitting much better than any of the other outfielders. So it’s hard to say the A’s will be missing his bat all that much.

Saturday, I was at the game and watched Swisher play first base, giving Scott Hatteberg a day off. This role may be where Swisher is missed the most.

Swisher looked pretty comfortable around first base. Hatteberg wore down at the end of last year because the A’s had no adequate replacement at 1B. Durazo is a truly awful defensive first baseman. Kielty has played a little bit there, but I’m not sure he’s much better. Maybe Keith Ginter ought to start taking some grounders at first. Otherwise, if Hatteberg gets nicked up and needs a couple of days off, we might end up seeing Dan Johnson.

But I’m guessing the A’s will call up an outfielder, since none of them save Kotsay were hitting anyway. If the A’s MLB site is to be believed, Matt Watson is the only other outfielder currently on the 40-man roster, so I’d call him the favorite. On the other hand, it also says the 40-man roster only has 37 players on it, so it could be someone else, like Jermaine Clark, who is a bit more versatile defensively.

On the positive side from Sunday’s game: (a) the A’s won, and (b) Barry Zito pitched well.

I’m still have some optimism about Zito; he had one bad game against Tampa, but otherwise has been pitching with a lot of bad luck. He’s added a slurve, which he said on the post-game show today is really just his curveball thrown from a 10-to-4 instead of an 11-to-5 angle, which gives it a velocity in the upper 70s, instead of the high-60s-lower 70s with his curveball.

I’ve noticed this year that he’s had a much greater variety of speeds on his pitches than in previous years. Before, he was just a three-pitch, three-speed pitcher. Now he has a larger palette of speeds and pitches to paint with. His fastballs used to be 86-89mph; now it varies between 82-89. His off-speed stuff was always 68-73; now that range is 68-79.

I’ve always felt that Zito’s biggest problem is that didn’t have enough ways to get somebody out if one of his pitches wasn’t working. The more ingredients you have in your kitchen, the more creative you can be with your recipes.

It doesn’t look like he has quite mastered his new tools yet, but give him time. The old dog of the A’s pitching staff is still young enough at 26 to learn a few new tricks.

May Day!
by Ken Arneson
2005-05-01 10:45

Today is May Day, when Socialists across the globe get out and demonstrate for a more equitable distribution of wealth.

I’m not a socialist, but perhaps I should demonstrate for a more equitable distribution of PECOTA percentiles. Only three A’s players are hitting above their 10% percentile projections for OPS:
 

Name avg obp slg ops Nearest %
Mark Kotsay .323 .382 .444 .826 75%
Marco Scutaro .275 .383 .406 .789 75%
Mark Ellis .279 .323 .328 .651 25%
Scott Hatteberg .267 .323 .349 .671 10%
Jason Kendall .258 .333 .292 .625 10%
Erubiel Durazo .250 .315 .345 .660 10%
Nick Swisher .218 .274 .372 .646 10%
Eric Chavez .194 .276 .312 .588 10%
Bobby Kielty .194 .293 .278 .570 10%
Eric Byrnes .192 .276 .346 .622 10%
Keith Ginter .176 .263 .382 .646 10%
Adam Melhuse .125 .125 .250 .375 10%
Charles Thomas .071 .235 .071 .307 10%
Total .241 .314 .343 .657

Not fair! We demand equality! 50% percentiles for all!

I am grateful the A’s finished April with a 12-12 record and only one game out of first despite the injustice of Those Who Play Dice With The Universe. Otherwise, we might not just be protesting for justice. We might be calling for a revolution.

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