Month: January 2007
Zito Thoughts, Part 2 of 3
by Ken Arneson
2007-01-04 0:20

Part 1 here.

“Barry Zito is going to start sucking any day now. He’s in decline. He’s been lucky. He’s losing it.”

I’ve been hearing words to that effect from the numbercrunchers for about four years now. I didn’t believe it then, and I don’t really believe it now, either.

Rich Lederer described the issue well:

To Zito’s credit, his actual ERA has consistently defied his FIP and DIPS calculations, as well as his PECOTA projections. He is obviously doing something well that isn’t being captured in these systems.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Nate Silver found that if you use Zito’s past ERA as a predictor of his future ERA, his new contract is actually worth the money. If you use his peripheral numbers, the Giants are paying double what he’s actually worth. Silver writes:

But while ERA is a very useful backward-looking metric — it’s helpful in settling Cy Young Award debates, for example — it’s not such a good forward-looking metric. A pitcher’s peripheral statistics predict ERA much better than past ERA itself.

I’d agree with that 99% of the time, but I can think of several reasons why Zito may be an exception to the rule. Consider:

Continue…

2006 Photo Outtakes #25
by Ken Arneson
2007-01-03 7:50

Shadows

OK, this is a Little League photo, not a Major League photo, but I liked the shadows in this picture.

You want a MLB tie-in? OK: I’ll often see SF Chronicle columnist Ray Ratto at these various local youth sports games, because my nephew is the same age as the (son/nephew?) of Ratto. Ratto’s recent throw-away line about a Joe Blanton-for-unmentionable trade has provoked the latest round of rumor discussions. I’m not going to comment on this rumor, except to say I don’t believe it for a second.

2006 Photo Outtakes #24
by Ken Arneson
2007-01-02 0:10

Do It Again

“Then you love a little wild one,
And she brings you only sorrow.
All the time you know she’s smiling.
You’ll be on your knees tomorrow.”

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