Playoff Predictions 2007
by Ken Arneson
2007-10-02 20:41

In my preseason predictions over on the Juice Blog this year, I picked the Cubs to win the World Series. Last year, my preseason prediction was right, as I picked the Cardinals to win it all. The year before, I didn’t make a preseason World Series prediction, but my postseason playoff prediction formula correctly predicted the White Sox as champions. This formula, which relies solely on the number of errors each team committed during the season (and accurately picks the Division Series winner 67% of the time), fell apart last year with a number of ties in error totals. This year, there are no ties: it predicts the Cubs to lose the Series to the Yankees.

The formula says:

(LDS: pick the team with the fewest errors)
Rockies (68 errors) over Phillies (89).
Cubs (94) over Diamondbacks (106).
Yankees (88) over Indians (92).
Red Sox (81) over Angels (101).

(LCS: reverse it, and pick the team with the most errors)
Cubs over Rockies.
Yankees over Red Sox.

(World Series: pick the team with the fewest errors)
Yankees over Cubs.

OK, so which one do I choose as my final answer–my formula or my preseason choice? Picking the Yankees is boring. I’ll go with my preseason one–the errors formula works better in the LDS than in later rounds, anyway. Plus, I’d rather have fun than be right, any day. Go Cubs!

Feel free to leave your own playoff predictions in the comments.

* * *

Congratulations to the Seattle Mariners for winning the highly coveted title of Heavyweight of the Year. They swept the Texas Rangers in the final weekend of the year to take the crown.

* * *

I should probably add the disclaimer that while I’ve had some success in making predictions in general, I totally suck at predicting the AL West.  Whenever I pick the A’s, the Angels win the division, and vice versa.  Clearly, I know nothing at all about that particular division.

Comments: 12
1.   Daniel Zappala
2007-10-02 21:12

1.  Drats, if the Angels had swept Texas too, then they would have had home field advantage. Stupid Rangers.

I have no formula, but my predictions are the same as yours, except for Rockies over Cubs and Yankees over Rockies. I posted these on Dodger Thoughts earlier today and didn't copy yours.

My rooting interests would have the Angels beat the Rockies, but I don't have much confidence the Angels can beat the Red Sox. If they did, it would be akin to the Angels beating the Yankees in 2002, and we know how that turned out and how well the Angels have played them ever since.

2.   Bob Timmermann
2007-10-02 22:54

2.  Boston over LA, NY over Cleveland, Boston over NY

AZ over Chicago, Colorado over Philadelphia, AZ over Colorado

Boston over AZ.

3.   xaphor
2007-10-03 00:38

3.  Boston over California
Cleveland over NY
Arizona over Chicago
Phily over Colorado

Boston over Cleveland
Arizona over Phily

Boston over Arizona

Out of the blue and into the white. A non-curse breaking win for the Sox should be less insufferable than one for Byrnesie.

4.   dianagramr
2007-10-03 07:04

4.  Sox over Angels
Yankees over Indians (torn on this one)
Cubs over DBacks
Rockies over Philly

Sox over Yankees
Cubs over Rockies

Sox over Cubs

(before the season, I picked Tigers over Brewers, so what do I know?)

5.   D4P
2007-10-03 08:12

5.  First of all, there is a significant positive correlation between Errors and Runs Allowed.

I suspect that choosing teams based Errors "works" as well as it does because you are (by proxy) simultaneously (to some extent) choosing them based on Runs Allowed.

Every one of Ken's picks also chooses the team that gave up the fewest runs except for every game involving the Yankees.

6.   Ken Arneson
2007-10-03 10:08

6.  6 Yes, but I checked all the major stats, and errors predicted the division series better than any of the others, including runs allowed. The only other stat that was close to errors was fielding percentage. Most of the other stats had the better team winning about 58-62% of the time; fielding percentage was about 66%, and errors 67%.

I have no idea why. Perhaps it's just a fluke, especially considering that this did not show up in the LCS or World Series, but I'm sticking with it.

7.   Ken Arneson
2007-10-03 10:09

7.  6 I always do that. I meant 5 .

8.   D4P
2007-10-03 10:28

8.  6
Interesting. The other thing Errors (negatively) correlates with is Quality Starts. Did you check that...?

9.   Ken Arneson
2007-10-03 10:47

9.  No, QS was not one of the stats I checked.

10.   D4P
2007-10-03 10:52

10.  9
Would it be hard to check...?

11.   Ken Arneson
2007-10-03 14:15

11.  Not hard, but I don't have time for that right now.

12.   be2ween
2007-10-03 15:51

12.  Rox over Phillies
Cubs over Snakes
Injuns over Evil Empire
Red Sox over Halo(e)s

Rockies over Cubs
Injuns over Sox

Injuns over Rockies

Should be fun!
Thanks Stewie!

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