Game 7 Chat: Taxonomy
by Ken Arneson
2008-04-06 12:31

In the spirit of looking away, I’m doing my taxes this afternoon.  It irks me that I have to spend a full day of my life each year filling out all these forms, even though my taxes are pretty much the same every year.  I’d gladly pay more taxes in exchange for all those days back.  This is the computer age, doggone it.  All that data should go electronically to the IRS, and it should fill out the forms for you, and all you should have to do is check a box and say, "yeah, that’s right."  10 seconds of your life every year, and that’s it.  How much of our nation’s productivity is lost to this manual process that needn’t be manual?

Meanwhile, Joe Blanton gets his third start of the season, facing Cliff Lee.

Indians at Oakland, 1:05pm

Game 6 Chat: Da? Na. Si? Si!
by Ken Arneson
2008-04-05 12:24

The A’s scored four runs in an inning last night, while I had left the room to change a diaper and Stewmate Philip Michaels left his TV to go shopping. The key to the A’s offense, obviously, is to not pay any attention to it.

So let’s not pay attention as the A’s take on all-star starting pitcher C.C. Sabathia. Before the bottom of each half inning I shall declare a new activity besides watching the game that I am focused on. Meanwhile, Dana Eveland makes his first start as an Athletic. He pitched great in spring training. What are the odds that Eveland ends up having a better year than Dan Haren?

Indians at Oakland, 1:05pm

Game 5 Chat: The Genesis of Duke’s Starting
by Ken Arneson
2008-04-04 18:02

Justin Duchscherer makes his first start since 2003 tonight, facing Paul Byrd and the Cleveland Indians. I’m sure Duke will be a Man of our Times, and put to rest any thoughts that the plan to make him a starter was just some sort of Misunderstanding. But let’s hope Duke isn’t Alone Tonight as the only A’s player who does anything well. Please Don’t Ask where the A’s offense has been; they’ve been missing somewhere Behind the Lines. They need to Turn It On Again, and keep going forward, not get stuck in some offensive Cul-De-Sac that goes nowhere. Otherwise, Duke’s Travels will just end up forgotten in a Heathaze of Athletics losses. Here’s hoping Duke’s End is more uplifting than that.

Indians at Oakland, 7:05pm

Game 4: Happy Harden Day!
by Ken Arneson
2008-04-02 9:16

The A’s only managed three hits and no walks last night (or even last night) against Daisuke Matsuzaka & Co. Unlike the opener in Japan, Dice-K was on his game, throwing strikes with multiple pitches. When a team relies on the walk as much as the A’s do, you can go a long way toward beating them simply by throwing the ball over the plate. Throw strikes with some zip on it, and the A’s are putty in your hands. Except for a lone Jack Cust home run, the A’s were simply overpowered last night, despite another good pitching effort by Joe Blanton.

Hopefully, it will be the Red Sox’ turn to be overpowered this afternoon when Rich Harden takes to the mound. Will Travis Buck ever get a hit? I’d be concerned about that, but then I saw that David Ortiz is hitless this year, too. Can that possibly last another day? If the A’s can escape a four-game series with Boston without being hurt by Big Papi, they should consider themselves very fortunate.

Red Sox at Oakland, 12:35pm

Game 3: Dice-K vs. Cupcakes, The Rematch
by Ken Arneson
2008-04-01 17:24

I’ve never really done game threads before, mostly because my computer and biggest TV were in different rooms.  If I wanted to surf and watch TV at the same time, I had to watch on a teeny 15" TV, and use my wife’s computer.  Now I have a nice new big HDTV and a slick laptop with a wireless network, so I’m good to go, if y’all are.  We got a decent amount of traffic during the two 3AM games, so if we don’t gather any interest at the 7pm hour, I guess my demographics consist of more vampires than I thought.

Red Sox at Oakland, 7:05pm

A’s Set 25-Man Roster
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-29 15:54

The A’s optioned out Jeff Fiorentino, Dallas Braden and, contrary to rumor, Carlos Gonzalez from the 28-man roster they used in Japan.  That leaves the 25-man roster as follows:

Starting Pitchers:  Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Justin Duchscherer, Dana Eveland

Relief Pitchers:  Andrew Brown, Santiago Casilla, Lenny DiNardo, Alan Embree, Keith Foulke, Fernando Hernandez, Huston Street

Catchers:  Rob Bowen, Kurt Suzuki

Infielders:  Daric Barton, Bobby Crosby, Mark Ellis, Jack Hanahan, Dan Johnson, Donnie Murphy, Mike Sweeney

Outfielders:  Emil Brown, Travis Buck, Chris Denorfia, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust

15-day DL:  Eric Chavez, Chad Gaudin

60-day DL:  Kiko Calero

I’m pretty satisfied and confident about the quality of that pitching staff. If Harden can pitch, he easily makes up for the loss of Dan Haren. I think Justin Duchscherer will sneak up on a lot of people, and be an above-average starting pitcher. Eveland and Gaudin will probably fall into the talented-but-inconsistent category, but that’s not bad for your fourth and fifth starters. If Foulke can keep pitching as well as he has in his last four outings (including the two that counted against the heart of the Red Sox order), then that’s an awfully deep bullpen. With Lackey and Escobar out for the Angels, this is probably the best pitching staff in the AL West from top to bottom.

The defense should be at least adequate, if not good. The big question is the bats: the A’s may have the best pitching in the division, but they probably have the worst hitting. The trade of Nick Swisher makes the outfield lineup look pretty darn weak. I expect a lot of 2-1, 3-2 ballgames this year, and the A’s success or lack thereof may depend on where Pythagoras decides to roll his dice in all those close ballgames.

Game 2 Chat, Red Sox vs. Athletics in Tokyo
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-26 2:00

I’m pretty zonked after staying up last night to watch the opener, but I’m going to try to get up for this game too, just because it’s Rich Harden Night. I’m happy to watch Rich Harden pitch anytime, anywhere. But I swear, the instant he leaves the game with the inevitable injured matsuge, I’ll shut my matubas and get me some good, old-fashioned inemuri.

Lessons Learned, Game 1
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-25 11:35

The good news is, if the A’s play like this for 161 more games, they’ll win a good share of them. Most reports out of Japan made it sound as if the A’s were expected to roll over and crumble against the awesome destructive powers of the Mighty Matsuzaka Power Sox. But the A’s did not fold in the presence of the world champions, acted as if they belonged as equals on the same stage as Boston, and lost the game mostly because of three of their own mistakes: two horribly mislocated pitches by Huston Street, and one gawdawful baserunning blunder by bad, bad, Emil Brown. Lessons learned:

Joe Blanton is pretty good. He outpitched Daisuke Matsuzaka for five innings, but ran out of gas in the sixth. It’s still March, he travelled halfway across the planet, and it still took a hitter the likes of Manny Ramirez to knock him out, so we can forgive him for his empty tank.

The jury is still out on Bob Geren. Geren didn’t have much to work with last year with all the injuries, so I’m still not sure what I think of him. But I must ask, why did Geren leave Blanton in the game to give up the lead run, with Alan Embree ready in the pen and a left-handed batter in Brandon Moss coming to the plate? It was a strange, Macha-vellian decision.

The A’s make opposing pitchers work. Matsuzaka only lasted five innings, mostly because of the A’s patient approach up and down the lineup. He had thrown 60 pitches after two innings. This will pay off in the long run, when the A’s face pitchers of a lower caliber than Matsuzaka.

Daric Barton has one heckuva batting eye. Three walks.

Opponents have already adjusted to Bobby Crosby’s adjustment. Crosby has moved up on the plate and opened up his stance in order to help him recognize and reach the outside breaking pitches that have given him so much trouble over the years. The Red Sox responded by jamming him with inside fastballs a couple of times, resulting in a couple of weak grounders. But on the positive side, he went 2-for-5 overall, so if getting jammed every once in a while means he’ll get more hits overall, so be it. Better to get jammed twice in five ABs on inside fastballs than strike out thrice on sliders in the dirt. He’s going to have holes in his swing either way; the smaller the holes, the better.

Travis Buck has not adjusted his swing. Like Crosby, Buck has a hole in his swing–in Buck’s case, it’s the high fastball. Pitchers like Matsuzaka who have enough zip on their fastballs can get him out pretty consistently by going up the ladder on him. He needs to learn to lay off that pitch.

PECOTA might be right about Hannahan vs. Chavez. The PECOTA projection system thinks Eric Chavez is on a steep decline, and that right now Jack Hannahan might be, if not a better player overall, a better hitter than Chavez. Given that Chavez is going to be out for probably another month or so with a bad back, perhaps PECOTA is right. Hannahan had two hits (including a 2-run homer) and a walk, so that’s another data point in support of this theory. On the other side, there were a couple of plays at third base where Hannahan did not make as clean a catch or as strong a throw as Chavez normally makes.

Keith Foulke might be Keith Foulke again. Foulke looked awful in spring training until his very last outing, where he put together the kind of quiet, 1-2-3 inning he used to assemble when he was at his peak. He faced the heart of the Red Sox order in the eighth inning, and got through it with no damage whatsoever.

Huston Street should listen to Alan Embree more. At FanFest this year, Street and Embree discussed their differences in approach: Embree thinks Street doesn’t challenge hitters enough with fastballs, and tries to fool batters with off-speed stuff far more often than he needs to. I’m sure Embree was on Street’s case again after today’s game, as Street threw consecutive changeups to Brandon Moss (who?), the second of which started on the corner, but then backed up over the middle of the plate into Moss’ happy zone, for a game-tying home run. If Street follows that first changeup with a fastball instead, the A’s probably win this game. It’s one thing to try to trick a David Ortiz or a Manny Ramirez into chasing something when you’re ahead in the count (Ramirez’ blow against Street was a two-strike slider which, had it been located well, probably also wins the game for the A’s, but hung like a tee over the middle of the plate), but you don’t need to fool the Brandon Mosses of the world like that. Another data point: Foulke’s eighth inning included freezing Manny Ramirez for a called third strike with a straight fastball on the outside corner.

Emil Brown goes straight into the doghouse. I can understand what Brown was trying to do–if he gets to third base with one out, then the A’s can tie the score without a hit. But he has to make 100% sure the throw is going to the plate and won’t be cut off, like it was. The fact that the next two batters got hits make it seem even worse. It’s the worst baserunning blunder by a new player on a new team since Mark Sweeney. Brown hit some balls hard today, but he’s going to have to do a lot more of that to get back on the plus side of the ledger after this blunder.

The A’s outfield defense: shaky. Jacoby Ellsbury made a great catch in centerfield that prevented a leadoff double by Brown in the eighth. Meanwhile, Brown almost flubbed a fly ball to left, Travis Buck misplayed a catchable drive that led to the three-run rally in the sixth, and Jeff Fiorentino had a shot at catching Ramirez’ double in the 10th, but his effort wasn’t a picture of elegance.

Mark Ellis RULEZ. Well, we knew that already. Still, a homer and a walk in five plate appearances, two double plays turned, and a nifty play ranging deep up the middle in the second inning to turn a potential two-on, no-out situation into a rally-killing fielders choice out. Nice.

Opening Day Game Chat, Red Sox vs. Athletics in Tokyo
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-25 2:00

For any night owls out there…

Let’s Go, Tokyo Athletics of Fremont including San Jose!
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-24 12:20

I’m still debating whether to get up at 3am tomorrow morning to watch the A’s season opener against the Red Sox in Tokyo. Back in my college days, staying up all night to finish an essay or cram for a test had little effect on me. But ever since I hit my mid-thirties, missing out on sleep affects me both mentally and physically for days. I suppose if I go to sleep about 10pm, and wake up at 3am, I could get by on five hours of sleep, but it’s not easy for me to fall asleep at 10pm. I guess it will be a game-time decision.  I’ll put a game thread up, in any case, if there are any other crazy souls out there.

Starting the season in Japan is interesting, but in a way, I would have preferred seeing the two weekend games against the Japanese teams on TV, rather than the two games against the Red Sox.  I mean, we get to see the A’s play the Red Sox many times every year, but how often do we get the chance to see the A’s stand in against the Giants or the Tigers?

Well, er, I mean, these (Yomiuri) Giants or these (Hanshin) Tigers.  Really, though, the A’s travel thousands of miles just to face the Giants and Tigers?   How boring is that?   C’mon!  Give us some Dragons or Buffaloes or Ham Fighters (yes, I know, I know) or Lotte Marines!   Sheesh.

The A’s are technically the home team in these contests against Boston, but the crowd will likely be decidedly pro-Red Sox, because of their Japanese players.  But perhaps Lew Wolff could change that.  We know that when the A’s move to Fremont, he plans to name the team the Something Athletics of Fremont.  Wolff probably wants to name them the San Jose Athletics of Fremont, but Bud Selig doesn’t want the A’s to name the team after a city which is in another team’s territory.  So heck, why not call them the Tokyo Athletics of Fremont, officially?  Play a few games in Tokyo every year, make the A’s into Japan’s Team™, and watch the dough start to roll in.

I also have a suggestion for Wolff on how to get around the problem of San Jose being inside Giants territory.  Just move San Jose itself into Alameda County.  It can be the new trend.  Instead of relocating franchises from city to city, you just relocate the entire city.  QED, problem solved.

I’m not sure how we would chant for our team if Mr. Wolff followed all these suggestions, but we’ll work something out.  We’re a resource bunch, we A’s fans.

Luck of the Green
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-17 15:32

The A’s won again today in the Cactus League, defeating the Kansas City Royals, 6-2. That makes the Green and Gold 15-5 so far, with three games left before they head off to Japan. The pitching so far has been outstanding, especially from the young newcomers. They’re making me feel rather optimistic about the future. I’m not sure that’s a good thing so early in this rebuilding process; it seems like it would be easier on my mental health if I kept my expectations low for awhile. I just need to tell myself, “They’ve been more lucky than good…more lucky than good…more lucky than good.”

That mantra may work to deceive myself, as I still haven’t seen any of these young players play; the A’s haven’t and won’t be televised until their major league opener in Tokyo. I did however, watch my first televised baseball game this weekend: Seattle vs. San Francisco.

When you compare the A’s to a team like Seattle, it’s easy to look at Seattle’s best players and see that they’re better than Oakland’s best players. One of the things I think people who prognosticate fail to consider is how much team depth matters over the course of a season. From roster spots 21-40, I think the A’s roster is much stronger than the Mariners’. The A’s may be a team utterly devoid of stars, but they’re pretty much utterly devoid of scrubs, too. That’s probably why PECOTA picks the A’s to have a better record than Seattle.

And wow, the Giants are bad. Each player in Oakland’s backup infield–Jack Hannahan, Gregorio Petit, Donnie Murphy and Dan Johnson–is probably better than their counterpart in the Giants’ starting infield this year.  And Barry Zito looked awful.  I’ve argued in the past against using DIPS as a means to measure a unique pitcher like Zito, on the basis that his stuff hadn’t changed, and his BABIP record had been consistently low. But judging by Saturday’s performance, Barry Zito has suddenly lost 4-5 mph off his fastball…and he didn’t have 4-5mph to lose. He better get it back soon, or that contract will kill the Giants for years to come (if it hasn’t done so already).

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I have three openings in my very casual, head-to-head Yahoo fantasy league. Draft is tomorrow night, Tuesday at 8pm Pacific. Categories: Hitting/Fielding: R, RBI, HR, SB, OBP, SLG, Assists, Fielding %. Pitching: W, SV, Holds, ERA, WHIP, K. To join click here. League ID: 47499. Password: ken.

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And finally, a (somewhat) Swedish St. Patrick’s Day greeting to all the permanent and temporary Irish people out there, from this (somewhat) Swedish blogger:

The Hole In Tire Universe
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-14 14:03

Today is Pi Day (3.14), but if that’s not nerdy enough for you, it’s also Einstein’s Birthday, and if you want to be even geekier that that, you can participate in Talk Like A Physicist Day, which, marvels of marvels, is also on today’s crowded agenda.

All of these mysterious quantum entanglements I heard about from some of the science blogs on the Periodic Table of BlogsCosmic Variance here, and Cocktail Party Physics here, but when I went to look for the reference this morning, I clicked on the wrong science blog, and ended up at the blog called Bad Astronomy here, where I got sucked into reading about the old 70s TV show Nanny and the Professor.

I barely remember watching that show as a kid, but the show did have the child actress Kim Richards, who later starred in the movie Escape to Witch Mountain. When I was nine years old, I thought Witch Mountain was the greatest movie I had ever seen, perhaps I hadn’t seen many movies and didn’t know better, perhaps because it was my first taste of sci-fi (this was two years before Star Wars), or perhaps because I had a crush on Kim Richards. (This "greatest" status didn’t last long; later that summer my cousin visiting from Sweden took me with him to see some movie he had heard of called "Jaws", and totally shattered my cinematic innocence.) Curious, I did some googling to see what Richards was doing these days, and discovered she has mostly retired from acting to raise her family. But while she stepped away from the celebrity life, another family member stepped in: Richards is the aunt of Paris Hilton.

To entangle these quanta even further, I happened to spend a very uneventful night inside Paris Hilton last May, before returning home to the Bay Area to watch Matt Morris pitch a masterful game against the Oakland A’s the following day, a performance which probably led to Morris’ eventual trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates, a horribly stupid trade which probably led to the firing of Pirates GM Dave Littlefield. Which makes me think of the Baseball Prospectus book signing with Kevin Goldstein and Christina Kahrl that I attended this past Monday here in my hometown of Alameda, CA, an event which, to be honest, wasn’t a whole lot more noteworthy or eventful than my night with Paris Hilton, other than the one statement that stuck in my mind, which was Goldstein saying that Littlefield was probably the last of baseball’s stupid GMs. Every team is run by committees of Einsteins these days, all talking about baseball like physicists.

Perhaps, then, the sequel to Moneyball should be called some ultra-physicist-sounding name like "Infinityball", except that the term "Infinity Ball" has already been used in my favorite episode of the TV cartoon show The Tick. In this episode, The Tick vs. The Big Nothing, The Tick has to travel to the center of our galaxy to help the Whats stop the Heys from throwing a black hole into another black hole and destroying the universe. The Whats try to explain to The Tick the science behind the Heys’ evil plan, but The Tick can’t stay awake to listen. "Science…boring…interest fading…zzzzzzzz…."

The Tick was created by Ben Edlund, and I was curious, like I was with Kim Richards, to see what he was doing these days. I found on IMDB that he has written a movie called Pox which is due out sometime this year. And looking at the cast for that movie, I discovered that my brother-in-law has a role in the film, playing a character called "Walraven".

Mr. Walraven, in real life, is a huge LA Angels and UCLA basketball fan, and his alma mater beat my alma mater, UC Berkeley, in the Pac-10 basketball tournament last night. I suspect that he will have a lot of bragging rights over me this year. But there is some hope for me–the Cal Bears’ baseball team has been red-hot this season. They are 10-1-1 so far this season, with their only loss coming at the hands of Missouri and pitcher Aaron Crow, who is serious candidate to be the top pick in the 2008 MLB draft. Bryan Smith, who used to write with me over at all-baseball.com, and now works with Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus writing about minor league and amateur baseball, wrote a nice (subscription-only) article about the Bears yesterday.

In the article, Smith discusses two of the Bears’ best hitters, junior David Cooper and senior Josh Satin, but fails to mention the other Bears hitter with an OPS over 1.000, centerfielder Brett Jackson. Jackson is a sophomore currently hitting .325/.491/.550, and leading the team with seven stolen bases.  I mention him where Smith doesn’t, because Brett’s father Peter used to be my boss in my previous job, and he is also an investor in the company I am currently working for.

My current company just (finally, finally) released version 2.0 of our software (formerly known as Fairpole) and my business partner (who quantum entanglementally used to play third base for the Bears) and I have been working tirelessly all week to work out the kinks in it that you only discover once you release it into the wild. Hopefully, once that process is over, we can bring the new version of the software back over to BaseballToaster.com, as well.

I hope this explains my recent silence on this blog. The momentum on the blog has deflated a bit, but I’ve been busy tying the entire universe together, and haven’t had time to rant about how stupid I think the A’s are for even thinking about sending Eric Chavez on that long plane ride to Japan, or conversely to write about how happy and optimistic it makes me to see how well the entire A’s staff is pitching in spring training. And since it looks like Red Sox may start the season without both Josh Beckett and Daisuke Matsuzaka, perhaps the A’s can fly to Tokyo next week and surprise everyone by starting off the season with a Big Bang.

0.338140227 Fluid Ounces of Love
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-07 22:43

My season tickets arrived today, but unlike past seasons, I got no thrill from opening them. I have no emotional link to the 2008 A’s yet. I’ve been pretty silent about spring training, mostly because I can’t think of anything intelligent to say about a bunch of players I’ve never seen play. Take the players from today’s boxscore, for example:

Guys I’ve Seen In Oakland before:
J Hannahan 3b
D Murphy ss
R Bowen c
D Johnson 1b
J Cust lf
A Embree p
Not exactly a group to summon the muses down from Mount Olympus, are they?

Guys I’ve Seen Play On Other Teams
T Linden pr-lf
M Sweeney dh
Offensive rejects from the Giants and Royals. Oh, boy!

Guys I’ve Never Even Heard Of
A Brown rf
C Rogowski ph
B Conrad ss-3b
C Gissell p
Huh? Andrew Brown playing right field?

Guys I’ve Heard Of But Never Seen Play
C Denorfia cf
C Gonzalez rf
J Fiorentino pr-cf
W Bankston 1b
J Knoedler c
R Sweeney ph
G Petit 2b
D Eveland p
F Hernandez p
I’d like to see them, but then again, that doesn’t mean they mean that much to me.

Thus my silence. Communication is the problem to the answer. I’m not in love, so don’t forget it. It’s just a silly phase I’m going through. You lay your bets and then you pay the price. Ah, the things we do for love.

Fundraiser for High School Sports in Alameda
by Ken Arneson
2008-03-07 17:09

A follow-up to my piece on the crisis in the Alameda high school athletics: I saw this a little late, but KNBR Radio and the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame is holding a fundraiser today for Alameda Education Foundation (AEF), to provide funds for high school athletics in Alameda.

In a very exciting opportunity this afternoon, KNBR680 is partnering with the Bay Area Sports Hall of Fame to raise funds for high school athletic programs in AUSD.

The Hall of Fame has donated a $30,000 matching grant to AEF, specifically for high school sports. KNBR will be contacting and interviewing professional athletes that came up through our athletic programs. The challenge? To get these athletes (and everyone listening) to match that $30K — or more! Please tune in to Tom Tolbert today, after the Giants game, from 3:00 to 7:00 pm.

Want to donate? Go to our donate button. When you get to Paypal, write "high school sports" or "KNBR" on the "item" line.

Our trip to Sacramento last week went well; we met with some staff of Lt. Governor John Garamendi, made our concerns heard, and got a tour of his office. (It’s not a particularly impressive office; your typical Silicon Valley office is much more impressive, but then again, the Lt. Governor’s office doesn’t really hold much power, so maybe that’s fitting.) Our group is pictured second from the bottom in this news article. The one good thing to know is that the politicians in Sacramento are certainly getting an earful. I think they’re starting to realize there’s a line that being crossed between a lean government and a starving one.

No More Jimmy Rollins, No More Dontrelle Willis
by Ken Arneson
2008-02-26 14:47

In an age when African-American interest and participation in baseball has been steadily waning, my alma mater, Encinal High School in Alameda, CA, has been remained perhaps the best pipeline of African-American talent in the country. Encinal has produced a Hall of Famer in Willie Stargell, an MVP in Jimmy Rollins, and a Rookie of the Year in Dontrelle Willis, all of whom have not only been great players, but also great ambassadors of the game, as well.

Unfortunately, the pipeline may soon be shut off. The state of California is facing a massive budget deficit, and Governor Schwarzenegger’s budget cuts hits the Alameda Unified School District particularly hard. AUSD receives less money per student from than any other city in its county. That’s because AUSD used to get subsidized with federal money back when the Alameda Naval Air Station was operational. The Naval Air Station closed in 1997, but the historical funding rates from the state have remained intact. And for some complicated political reasons I can never quite understand, those low funding rates are extremely unlikely to change.

AUSD has already slashed $7 million from its budget over the last seven years, has already increased revenue by passing a parcel tax on Alameda properties, and is now operating about as leanly as anyone could expect from a government agency. But with this new budget, it has to somehow find another $4-$5 million. These new cuts will really be painful.

The proposed new budget eliminates funding for all high school athletics in Alameda. If there’s going to be another Jimmy Rollins or Dontrelle Willis coming out of Alameda, charity will be required.

You’d hope that perhaps AUSD could find a way around this, but I can’t see how. High school sports seems like a luxury compared to impact of closing two or three schools, firing music and art teachers, and increasing class sizes by 50% in kindergarten through third grades. The only way out I can see is if somehow people can be convinced that sometimes–sometimes–there’s a right time to raise taxes instead of lowering them.

I’m not optimistic, but I’ll be heading to Sacramento tomorrow to join a PTA Advocacy Day gathering to see what we can do.

Adjusting PECOTA to Make the A’s Win
by Ken Arneson
2008-02-17 22:45

There was a little buzz in the blogosphere recently when Derek Zumsteg at USS Mariner ran the ZiPS 2008 projections through the Diamond Mind simulator, and ended up with the A’s winning the division more than any other team. Obviously, something was screwy there, right? Yes, ZiPS doesn’t really try very hard to accurately predict playing time, and Diamond Mind has a mind of its own with regards to playing time, as well, so that outcome alone is nothing for A’s fans to excited about.

BP’s PECOTA, on the other hand, does try to predict playing time, and they just came out with their projected standings. They have the A’s in second place, with a 78-84 record, eleven games behind the Angels. That’s closer to what I had mentally been preparing myself for, a year without hope. But I thought I’d try a little thought experiment to see if I could come up with a reasonable scenario, based on the PECOTA numbers, that gives the A’s a division title.

So I’m going to make some reasonable adjustments to PECOTA’s assumptions. By reasonable, I mean, I’m not going to turn Bobby Crosby into Alex Rodriguez. The adjustments have to have some logic to it.

Here’s what we need to accomplish: find a reasonable scenario whereby the A’s can make up the gap in the projected run differentials between the A’s and Angels. Here’s what we’re starting with:

Team runs: score-allowed
Angels:      810-728     = +82
Athletics:   732-758     = -26
Run differential to make up:      108.0 runs (based on VORP)

Continue…

Another Moneyballer Gone: Jeremy Brown Retires
by Ken Arneson
2008-02-15 13:56

Jeremy Brown, made famous by Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball, has decided to retire. He ended up playing a total of five major league games, hitting .300/.364/.500 in eleven plate appearances. We should all be so fortunate. In the minors, he hit .269/.370/.439 in 539 games. Catfish Stew has a slideshow of his first major league game.

To replace Brown in the spring training role as the catcher-we’d-rather-see-bat-than-catch, the Oakland Athletics announced they have signed Matt LeCroy.

Of the seven first- and supplemental-round picks that the A’s had in the 2002 Moneyball draft, only Joe Blanton now remains in the organization. And who knows how long that will last?

Update:  It seems Brown had some family issues that led to his decision to retire.

It Begins Today
by Ken Arneson
2008-02-13 16:26

The Oakland Athletics report to camp today for a season of rebuilding, but the trials of the 2008 baseball squad are nothing compared to the other A’s-owned sports franchise. Tonight, the MLS expansion San Jose Earthquakes come back to life and play their first exhibition game since the old Earthquakes moved to Houston a couple years ago. Which A’s franchise will rebuild faster? Well, it’s still a plausible, if unlikely, scenario, that the A’s could win this year. Meanwhile, the Quakes’ roster for tonight’s game only lists twelve players. The lone substitute is a backup goalie.

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This blog entry is pretty thin, too. Let me add this piece of frivolity to fatten things up:

Buffalo Kemp Buffalo Kemp bison bison Buffalo Kemp.

* * *

I’m too lazy to do the math, but I think the Quakes’ roster is older, on average, than the A’s roster.

* * *

And while we’re on the topic of expansion franchises that replaced one that moved away, BP’s Rany Jazayerli has started a new Royals blog.

* * *

The new Quakes will play mostly in Santa Clara, but they will play their first regular season home game in the Oakland Coliseum on April 12. Later in the season, there will be two other games in Oakland, both against David Beckham and the LA Galaxy. I certainly hope the field doesn’t get chewed up like it does after Raider games. Will they put the football seats in? There’s no chart on the Quakes web site yet. I remember going to an Oakland Stompers game at the Coliseum once, but I can’t remember which direction the field went. Wow, that was 30 years ago. Man, I’m getting old.

Mike Sweeney Signs With A’s
by Ken Arneson
2008-02-10 16:29

Having resolved all of their potential arbitration cases earlier this month, the A’s have now moved into full-scale Geezer Acquisition Mode. Today, Oakland signed the formerly awesome 1B-DH Mike Sweeney to a minor league contract, a couple days after reeling in the formerly awesome reliever Keith Foulke.

Sweeney has been plagued by injuries (a perfect fit, then?) for years. He was a great player from 1999-2002, and a good one from 2003-2005, but hasn’t done much in the last two years, playing a combined 124 games. He’s probably best known to A’s fans for hitting a three-run homer the A’s 20th consecutive victory in 2002, setting up Scott Hatteberg’s dramatics.

Is there room for Sweeney on the roster? Perhaps it’s a sign that someone like Dan Johnson will soon be packing his bags for another team, to make room for Sweeney. You’d think that between Johnson, Daric Barton, and Jack Cust that most of the 1B-DH at-bats have been spoken for. But the incumbents are all left-handed batters, so perhaps adding a right-handed bat on the bench like Sweeney would have its uses, in the same vein as adding Emil Brown’s right-handed bat to the outfield mix. The sad part about all the A’s free agent dabblings this winter is that the A’s were so hurting for right-handed bats, that they took to signing discards from the Kansas City Royals for help.

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