OK, Take A Guess
by Ken Arneson
2006-08-29 11:14

Who is currently leading the 2006 Oakland A’s in Win Shares?

Got your guess?

OK, now go check out the answer.

You were wrong, weren’t you?

Comments: 16
1.   Eric Enders
2006-08-29 11:17

1.  I'll guess Huston Street.

2.   Eric Enders
2006-08-29 11:17

2.  That is just insane.

3.   Shaun P
2006-08-29 11:19

3.  Incredible. Billy Beane really is a genius after all.

4.   Sam DC
2006-08-29 11:26

4.  Big Hurt?

5.   Sam DC
2006-08-29 11:29

5.  I guess that Fast set him right.

6.   DXMachina
2006-08-29 11:34

6.  Wow, he wins more games with his glove than even Cesar Izturis.

7.   mehmattski
2006-08-29 11:35

7.  Yeah, but check out VORP:

http://tinyurl.com/o5mg8

Has JK really added 3 wins (defensive WS/3) on the basis of his defense? Thomas, Zito, Haren, Swisher and Kendall are all around 10 WSAB.

8.   Bob Timmermann
2006-08-29 11:37

8.  That guy leads in Win Shares?

You're doing to me what I just did about 45 minutes ago before I left.

9.   Ken Arneson
2006-08-29 11:41

9.  If six of the top ten most valuable fielders in baseball by win shares (our hero being #1) are catchers , it makes me think that maybe there's something wrong with the formula. You'd think a SS, 2B, or CF would/should have the best odds of coming up on top.

10.   Eric Enders
2006-08-29 11:49

10.  FWIW, I've always thought the win shares formula for catcher's defense and 1B defense are 100% worthless. For all the other positions, I think it does a pretty good job.

11.   Uncle Miltie
2006-08-29 14:09

11.  Wow...haha

12.   Voxter
2006-08-29 19:41

12.  My brother and I both guessed Dan Haren. I'm shocked that it's Jason Kendall, but given that I have very little trust in defensive WS -- and almost none in WS for catcher defense -- I don't feel too bad about it.

Our second guess was Nick Swisher.

13.   scarface
2006-08-29 20:41

13.  I'm not saying I trust those WS ratings that much (also, they are not rate-based, and will reflect Kendall's no. of games played, right?).

BUT, Kendall no longer inspires hate at the plate from me. I was always comfortable with his play-calling; now he seems quite trust-worthy at throwing out runners, and getting on base as well (no power tohugh, I know). And his "alertness" or "veteran savvy", for lack of a better word, is unparallelled - he must hold some kind of record at getting on base or getting runners out by unconventional means - at the most opportune moments.

He just threw out Hinske, saving Saarloos some work.

14.   Uncle Miltie
2006-08-29 23:44

14.  Kendall is the best I've ever seen at "causing" batters interference. He's actually done it to end a few games.

15.   voxpoptart
2006-08-30 09:20

15.  If you read Bill James's explanation of the Win Shares formulas for catcher, and look at the results it produces over time, i think you WILL find its relative ratings of catchers convincing. He's identified and eliminated a huge number of measurement biases, and left something which seems like it correctly identifies the nimble, sure-handed, and strong-armed: reputations and Win Shares correlate very nicely.

That said, the total number of Win Shares he assigns to catcher is kinda strange, given that he's not trying to measure game-calling ability. I think it's done to compensate for the weak hitting of catchers, and it's a very indirect way of doing that.

16.   standuptriple
2006-08-31 08:33

17.  14 The 2 often gets a bad rap, but those guys are field generals out there. Causing interference is a small, but important, trick of the trade. Much respect for the Tools of Ignorance.

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