He stole bases, got hits, and he walked.
His glovework was great. He seemed locked
Towards the Hall.
But his health hit a wall,
And then there’s that loogie he hocked.

We all know spring training stats are meaningless. So are horoscopes, but that doesn’t mean I don’t read them anyway.

Like horoscopes, we tend to read into them whatever we want to read into them. If the prediction is wrong, we ignore it. If it’s right–wow, that’s great!

In that spirit, I tend to seek out the stats which look like they’re supposed to look. I know it’s not logical, but they reassure me.

I’m currently finding a lot of comfort in these Cactus League numbers:

Player      ERA
--- ---
R Harden    3.75
B Zito      4.00
D Haren     2.00
J Blanton   4.00
K Yabu      4.00
S Etherton  2.25

Hey, the starting pitching looks good! No worries.

Of course, I then go and rationalize away numbers like this:

Player      ERA
--- ---
O Dotel     9.64
D Meyer    10.38

Those stats look bad, but that’s because in this case, we’re talking a small sample size.

Using a similar lack of logic, I have chosen to ignore all of the A’s spring training batting stats, except Jason Kendall’s. His are the only numbers that seem close to what I’d expect. So Kendall: wow, he’s gonna be great, I’m sure.

Otherwise, the spring stats have been nonsense. Half the team’s home runs have been hit by Eric Byrnes. The star hitter in camp has been Mark Ellis. Nearly everyone else is hitting around .200.

Using numbers like those to project the upcoming season is just crazy talk. It’s as silly as astrologers predicting the future by staring up at the sky.

But hey, check out that big fluffy cloud over there. It kinda looks like Jason Kendall, doesn’t it?

Will Thursday’s congressional hearing
On the chemical reengineering
Of the bodies of players
Lead to more layers
Of federal law interfering?

The players and owners agreed:
“There currently isn’t a need
For new regulations.
Our pure motivations
Are enough to ensure we’ll succeed.”

Canseco, who’d written a book
Admitting the steroids he took,
Was boldly dissenting.
“They’re misrepresenting;
Believe them, and you are a schnook.”

Said players: “Consider the source.
A career with a bitter divorce.
He’s spent time in jail.
His honor’s for sale.
He’s a man without any remorse.”

Congressional leaders weren’t buying.
“Think of the kids who are dying!
Unless from each hero
The drug use is zero,
More and more youth will be trying.”

“To answer your questions,” said Schilling,
“We’ll solve this, and someday, God willing,
I’ll be voted up there
To a senator’s chair,
And that will feel much more fulfilling.”

Palmeiro propounded, “It’s true.
Whatever Curt said, we should do.
He has my respect.
I’m sure he’s correct.”
While Sosa supplied a “Me, too.”

The positive-spinner McGwire
Said, “Labels like ‘cheater’ and ‘liar’
Are excessively crappy.
Instead, let’s be happy,
And not discuss incidents prior.”

The panel discussed the new deal,
And found it was somewhat surreal.
It hadn’t existed
‘Til arms had been twisted!
Was someone asleep at the wheel?

“I don’t want to sound like a jerk,
But that’s how these labor deals work,”
Manfred explained.
“A deal is obtained,
And later it’s typed by some clerk.”

The Congress kept up its critique.
“The punishments here are too weak!
Five strikes you’re out
Is a deal with no clout
To stop the next phony physique.”

“I certainly want stronger testing,”
said Selig. “And I’m not suggesting
We name any names,
Or give players the blame,
But strictness is what I’m requesting.”

The fuss ends up falling on Fehr.
He’ll never, of course, volunteer
That the union’s at fault.
Any chief worth his salt
Unerringly knows where to steer.

And so, when the actors departed,
I felt I was back where I started.
Unsure who to blame,
Who to trust with the game,
Just sour and sad and sick-hearted.

Question: Will the steroid hearings be televised?

I’m not so much interested in what the congress members ask or what the witnesses answer. I’m just curious to see how much the temperature drops in Washington when Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco share the same room. I’m sure Jose’s gonna get quite a few icy stares.

Answer: Yes, on C-SPAN3. Don’t get C-SPAN3? View it live online, on the CSPAN web site: Real Media, Windows Media.

 
Question: Should I feel any differently about the Bash Brothers era because of the steroids? And never mind how I should feel, how do I actually feel?

Answer: I had always felt rather cheated that the earthquake ruined the joy of winning the World Series in 1989. It wasn’t appropriate to whoop it up after what had just happened. It didn’t feel as fulfilling as it should to have my team win it all.

Now we know that my “cheated feeling” may have fit the accomplishment quite appropriately.

In those days, I’d always arrive at the ballpark just as the gates opened, because Canseco and McGwire put on a simply amazing show in batting practice every day. I can’t look back on it now without bringing back the sense of fun and awe I felt at the time.

So perhaps I should feel bad that this era was tainted with chemical enhancements, but I don’t. The relationship might have ended with accusations of cheating and a chilly divorce, but it was sure fun while it lasted. I can’t change that.

To continue the religious theme around here, it was Christmas in March at the Arneson house today. The FedEx Santa delivered my favorite package: season tickets.

I get to play Santa for the people I share the tickets with later, but first, I have to open the package to see what they look like, and feel them in my hands. This is when the baseball season truly becomes tangible.

It appears the A’s are sticking with the “A’s Brand” marketing scheme they used last year. The ticket booklet declares on the cover: “INSIDE: this book contains up to 6 months of pure bliss.”

The tickets are very cleverly designed. Instead of just having pictures of players as they had in the past, now they have given the tickets some extra utility. Some tickets have coupons, some have silly lists like a “Dot Racing Wager Card” and a Pre-Game Checklist (“foam finger”, “emergency backup foam finger”…) and some have games, like a word search, and a mad lib.

But this one really cracked me up:

 
No wonder Eric Byrnes hasn’t been traded yet…

We had our first warm weather of the year this week in the Bay Area, but I missed it. I was spending my days in front of the computer, getting this site off the ground.

My lawn, however, did take in the sunny weather. I looked out my window yesterday and my lawn was suddenly two inches higher than I remembered it. Man, I gotta get out of the house.

So what a better thing to do than spend Saturday afternoon outside, doing yardwork while listening to the A’s-White Sox game?

Some clippings from the mower:

• Rich Harden started the game, and was awesome. Struck out the side in the first. Gave up a solo homer to Carl Everett in the fourth, but that the only trouble he had.

  I think Harden’s ready to have a big year. He seems to be improving as a pitcher every time I see him. For some reason, PECOTA does not agree with me. PECOTA predicts a 4.46 ERA for Harden this year, a regression to the same ERA he had as a rookie. The other projection systems: Marcel predicts 4.02, while ZiPS is the only one that actually predicts Harden to improve over last year’s 3.99 ERA, at 3.89. I’ll take the under on all of them.

• Eric Chavez launched his first homer of the spring, a three-run shot off Jose Contreras. He’s also leading the cactus league in walks, after leading the AL in walks last year despite missing six weeks with a broke hand.
• Octavio Dotel had a bad outing. Ray Fosse said his slider looked flat.
• Daric Barton, in first spring training AB after having his appendix removed, worked a walk. Did you expect anything else? He ended up scoring the winning run.
• Kurt Suzuki has impressed behind the plate. He’s thrown out four runners trying to steal this spring.
• Keiichi Yabu, 1-2-3 inning in the eighth, then allowed just a single in the ninth to close out a 7-6 A’s win.

Baseball Musings:

Only two days into the existence of the universe, and God makes the firmament. It should be interesting to find out what He does with it.

Update: On the third day, God makes dry land and adds some plants, too. I wonder, how will they photosynthesize in all this darkness?

Update: God creates light on the fourth.

Mike’s Baseball Rants:

Sometimes the old traditions get it right.

The seven-day week is one of those traditions. The intention was that people would work hard for six days, and rest the seventh. But now people are resting the sixth day, as well.

Now you only get five days of productivity per seven days, instead of six.
That’s a difference of 85.7% – 71.4% = 14.3 percentage points, or a 16.6% drop
in productivity.

If God had been 16.6% less efficient, we would have no animals, and no people. That sixth day can really make a difference.

Let us examine the productivity levels of the various work/rest permutations. Here we have one day of rest:

Notice, even a four-day week is better than the 5/2 week we currently have, and a three-day week isn’t much worse.

If we insist on retaining two consecutive days off, we’d have to
work 12 consecutive days to reach the original level of productivity of the
6/1 week:

And what about three-day weekends?

Now who would want to work eighteen days in a row? Clearly, if we want
an optimal balance between productivity and rest we should behold the sixth
day. It is very good.

Batgirl:

Batgirl’s boyfriend of the day is Adam. Adam came up with all the names for the animals:

“And I’ll call you Pandy, and you Stripy, and you Bunny and you Wooly, and you Moomoo.”

Poor Adam had to sleep alone. Batgirl felt sorry for him.

But then one day, a miracle happened! Adam got a girlfriend!

No, it wasn’t Batgirl, alas.

Will Carroll:

Adam needed to have a rib removed, and would normally have been expected to miss six to eight weeks. But God used a new surgical technique to close up the flesh instead thereof. Adam is now considered day-to-day.

Athletics Nation:

Blez: Where are you?
Adam: I heard thy voice in the garden, and I was afraid, because I was
naked; and I hid myself.

Blez: Who told you you were naked? Did you eat of the tree that
Billy Beane commanded you not to eat?
Adam: The woman whom thou gavest to be with me, she gave me of the tree,
and I did eat.

Blez: Eve, what is this that you have done?
Eve: The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat.

Humbug

God orders, “Don’t eat the fruit!”
Snake says, “You’ll be more astute!”
The pair take a bite,
They learn wrong from right,
Then God gives the sinners the boot.

I recently wrote this about a potential new stadium for the A’s:

I don’t want some moneygrubbing shopping mall of a stadium. I want a green cathedral, crafted by a passion for excellence, and sculpted for the souls of the faithful.

And now this news: the A’s flagship radio station, KFRC 610, is being sold, and will convert from an oldies format to religious programming.

Um, guys? I’m glad you responded so promptly to my request. But when I said I wanted a ballpark that was a cathedral, please understand. That was a metaphor.

Welcome to Catfish Stew, where we finally put a stop to all of the porosity casting that plagues society.

If you’re an Oakland A’s fan, you know exactly what I’m talking about.

If not, here’s an explanation:

For years, there was a huge sign by the freeway just south of the Coliseum that said “Stop Casting Porosity”. What did it mean? Was it a protest sign? An ad? Nobody seems to know.

To me, that mysterious sign functioned as a symbol for all the things I still don’t know. Sadly, the sign disappeared a few years ago. If I had my choice, I would have declared it a historical landmark.

Anyway, so now that the worst of my big programming project is done, I can finally get back to writing about baseball and my favorite team again. Feels good.

So how about them A’s?

The news is that I will be switchin’
The web site where I fill my niche in.
To this house I have come
To bug all my hum
As one of the cooks in their kitchen.

Glenn Dickey had a status report on the stadium plans in the Chronicle this morning.

It seems a special task force has been formed to move the project forward. I like what I’ve heard. First of all, this group doesn’t seem to harbor any fantasies about public financing. They’re talking retail and housing development around the BART station to help fund the plan, using private money and urban development funds, not new taxes.

The part I like best is that they seem to have some sense of aesthetics:

• They shot down the parking garage idea previously discussed. I don’t know how a parking garage would have worked, and apparently they don’t either. Have you ever seen a parking garage that wasn’t an eyesore?
• They talk about building on the south side, but not in the existing lot.I guess that would mean building on the site of the abandoned Home Base store, right along Hegenberger. Building along a street instead of in the middle of a sea of parked cars would probably look nicer, too.
• One of the task force members, Glenn Isaacson, is working on the Oakland Catholic Cathedral project.

The original design for the Church of Christ the Light in Oakland was done by Santiago Calatrava, one of the world’s leading architects. Calatrava designed the acclaimed wing to the Milwaukee Art Museum, as well as the Turning Torso, an unusual twisting skyscraper, the tallest building in Sweden, being built a mile from where my brother lives.

Calatrava has apparently left the Cathedral project, but his original design is moving forward. Check out the pictures in this article. The building, which will overlook Lake Merritt, looks fabulous. Oakland may soon get the signature building it so sorely lacks.

The idea that someone involved in the Cathedral project is also involved in the A’s stadium project gives me hope. It shows a commitment to Oakland, to great architecture, and to the idea that human spirituality is worth something.

I don’t want some moneygrubbing shopping mall of a stadium. I want a green cathedral, crafted by a passion for excellence, and sculpted for the souls of the faithful.

Jay Jaffe reviews The Rebels of Oakland, an HBO documentary. I haven’t seen it yet, it’s a must-see for me. I grew up on those Oakland teams of the 70’s. Unfortunately, I don’t get HBO, so I guess I’ll have to ask a friend to tape it for me next time it’s on.

Jay then proceeds to compare and contrast Charlie Finley with George Steinbrenner:

The difference, in a nutshell, is that Finley was a man who knew baseball talent himself; he served as his own GM and oversaw the development of that homegrown talent. But he was a miser who refused to reward his players for their successes on the field, and his breach of Catfish Hunter’s contract ushered in a new era of upwardly spiraling salaries. At the other end was Steinbrenner, unflinchingly willing to pay top dollar for talent, but lacking — to this day, some would say — any real understanding of how to evaluate it.

30 years later, the Yankees still have Steinbrenner, and the A’s still pinch pennies while expertly evaluating baseball talent with the smallest of staffs. The more things change…

I often wonder how Finley managed to find all that talent. Was he just lucky? He certainly didn’t have much of a staff supporting him. On the other hand, he did make his fortune selling insurance. The insurance business is all about risk management, understanding how to beat the odds in the long run. Could Finley have been a closet sabermetrician?

…and the robots who eat them.

The Sneeze is definitely going onto the next version of the Periodic Table. Unless, of course, I get crushed by a giant falling donut before I can get around to updating it.

I’d like to uphold Jon Weisman’s pledge to avoid making rash judgements about spring training stats. But when your team starts out 0-4 after a massive winter overhaul, it’s hard to keep the negative thoughts from creeping in.

It’s been a while since the A’s were a really bad team, so I started imagining what it would be like if they start out 0-4 during the regular season, and display the kind of pitching they showed yesterday in their 17-4 loss to the Angels. What if none of the rookies are ready? Could be a long year…

Well, thank goodness for Rich Harden. He went three shutout innings today, and a host of relievers followed him with shutout innings of their own, as the A’s won, 5-0.

Ahhhh, now that’s more like it.

It’s a win, and now all those doubts can go back into their winter burrows until the regular season calls them back out. Meanwhile, I have a month’s worth of spring training optimism to enjoy.

It’s been weeks since I last made a post.
Did you think that I gave up the ghost?
It’s just hard to find time
To make up a rhyme
While fixing to go make some toast.

Chad Bradford’s bad back will require surgery. The A’s said they don’t expect him back until July.

This may be good news for Rule 5 pick Tyler Johnson. He’s less likely now to get squeezed out in a numbers game and being returned to St. Louis.

With a good spring, Johnson just might stick around now.

What’s the relationship between Humbug and BS? Now we know. (This link is rated R for language).

I have a beta version of the 2005 Fantasy Baseball Draft Simulator available now. Requires Flash.

I didn’t fix any of last year’s incomplete features. All I did was update the list of players. In other words, it’s still beta software. But clunky and inelegant as it is, it does seem to work.

I might complete those features someday, but I wouldn’t count on it. I’m a busy guy these days.

Email me (toaster @ humbug.com), though, if you find a showstopping bug. I’ll try to fix those.

I should have the 2005 fantasy draft simulator ready in a couple of days.

In making this simulator, I consolidate a bunch of internet fantasy and statistical projections. I focus primarily on the starting lineups, since starters are mostly all we really care about for fantasy purposes.

To give you a bit of fun until then, here are some consolidated statistical projections for each team’s offensive starting lineup. I’ll just sort here by GPA, which should be a decent enough way to rank the teams. Pitchers not included. This is just a cheap toy. For serious toys, more assembly is required.

Anything surprise you? I was surprised by:

• Positive side: Phillies and A’s. I probably shouldn’t have been surprised by the Phillies being fifth, but I was. The A’s won’t have a lot of power, but having Kendall and Ginter instead of Miller and Scutaro improves the OBP quite a bit.
   
• Negative side: White Sox and Angels. The Lee-for-Podsednik deal doesn’t look too good for the Chisox here. The Angels could defy these rankings; they are projected for the sixth-lowest OBP, but the fourth-highest batting average. Because of that, I’d guess they’ll actually end up closer to the middle in runs scored than the bottom.

You know, I hear other people complaining about their team’s newspaper coverage, but I feel pretty fortunate in that respect.

I get the San Francisco Chronicle on my doorstep every morning, and A’s beat writer Susan Slusser is a damn good reporter. This story about Eric Byrnes in the Dominican Republic is another example of her fine work.

She deserves some props.

By the way, this picture of Byrnes from Slusser’s article is the perfect example of why Billy Beane may swap him for Mike Cameron. How often do you make a catch like that in the outfield if you haven’t misjudged the ball to begin with?